In a recent interview with Grant Williams, he made the case that perhaps the institutional chaos and political incoherence we’re experiencing can all be explained by midwits being in power. Certainly the recent Harvard plagiarism debacle supports that being the case. The midwits on the Harvard board seemed incapable of estimating or appreciating the damage that protecting and defending a serial plagiarist might have on their brand let alone their multi-century long mission.
Ditto for Budweiser and the Bud Light fiasco. Or Disney and its unbearably preachy, hectoring movies.
Is it the case that the Federal Reserve is similarly staffed to the gills with midwits and self-delusional true believers? Count on it.
But what does this mean for the average investor? What steps can and should they take given the knowns and the current unknowns?
Tune in to find out.
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Does This Guy Have An Opinion On Bitcoin, And If So What Is It?
Not a word on actual, specific solutions to preserving wealth from what I can tell from scanning the video.
I remain convinced that Bitcoin will outperform every other investable asset and/or currency in the coming year. At least a few other folks in the tribe agree. It’s best thought of as a currency trade pair with the dollar, just like Gold. It is the hardest money ever let loose on the world - it has the most Iron-clad scarcity integrity of any money-like asset, including Silver and Gold.
Once the ETF’s get going, they will quickly hit what I am coining “The Wall of HODL”… which simply means that once much of the approximately 2M BTC held on exchanges get hoovered up into the ETF’s, sold by those with only a short term view… then the supply vs demand equation begins to depend on selling from the self-custody crowd.
This is when we start seeing what Max Keiser is terming “God candles” of $100,000 or more.
"It is the hardest money ever let loose on the world " I disagree. I might be, but it’s not there yet.
It’s not yet a medium of exchange. I cannot spend it everywhere, and I cannot pay my taxes in it.
Next, its ownership is overly concentrated in just a few hundred wallets. To believe Bitcoin itself will become THE parallel currency is to reward those few hundred wallets with unimaginable unearned wealth.
Next, it’s not “hard” in the sense that it derives 100% of its value on an intact and functioning internet and connected nodes. If/when the internet goes down, then it becomes the opposite of hard.
Further, the energy required to operate Bitcoin is unnecessarily large. There’s no reason for a ledger to require mining to be reconciled. I understand that can be done in other ways, without requiring much additional energy at all. Just wait until the SJW’s at the US Treasury get their marching orders to trash Bitcoin…this is one attack vector they might use.
Finally, the government hates competition. I am leery of the fact that the US government and the MSM jointly favor Bitcoin. Seems like it could be a trap. But, I am certainly too cautious and jaded for my own good from time to time, and this may be one of them. Still I can’t shake that perception.
Hard assets are land, water, food, gold, tractors, silver, titanium, trees and oil.
Paul’s view on wealth management for this year is to have a solid plan with good risk management and to be nimble, ready to move when the signs say it’s time.
Thank you for engaging in a Bitcoin discussion Chris.
It’s not yet a medium of exchange. I cannot spend it everywhere, and I cannot pay my taxes in it.
Neither do Gold or Silver function in this way, and yet they made it onto your preferred Hard Assets list at the bottom of your response.
Next, its ownership is overly concentrated in just a few hundred wallets. To believe Bitcoin itself will become THE parallel currency is to reward those few hundred wallets with unimaginable unearned wealth.
Central Banks own huge amounts of Gold, and yet Gold is on your preferred hard assets list. If we long frustrated PM investors were to see our assets multiply in value, the same would be happening for central banks, and the BIS. If you are going to make this kind of moral argument against Bitcoin, the same can be made for Gold.
Next, it’s not “hard” in the sense that it derives 100% of its value on an intact and functioning internet and connected nodes. If/when the internet goes down, then it becomes the opposite of hard.
Certainly Bitcoin is not perfect... but it has proven over the last 15 years to be highly antifragile, including making it through China's ban on mining. Unless we are talking Giant Meteor, it's likely that nodes will remain running through almost anything else, maybe just running off volcano thermal power in El Salvador, maintaining the record of your ownership for a better day. I am frankly tired of waiting for the monetary world to end and my Gold and Silver to break free of their paper tethers. I see in the next year a tremendously asymmetric risk vs reward probability for Bitcoin, and I am positioning myself for such.
Further, the energy required to operate Bitcoin is unnecessarily large. There’s no reason for a ledger to require mining to be reconciled. I understand that can be done in other ways, without requiring much additional energy at all. Just wait until the SJW’s at the US Treasury get their marching orders to trash Bitcoin…this is one attack vector they might use.
Computers and data centers use a non-negligible percentage of the worlds power today, and the Bitcoin network is among the most powerful in the world from a hash rate perspective ..... I would argue that Bitcoin wouldn't be as hard a money as it is if it were easier to mine. As long as fiat currency keeps sucking as a store of value, and as long as there is energy to use, Bitcoin will keep cranking along, providing a store of value, and miners will find more and more efficient ways to mine
https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/oil-drillers-bitcoin-miners-bond-over-natural-gas-2021-05-21/
Finally, the government hates competition. I am leery of the fact that the US government and the MSM jointly favor Bitcoin. Seems like it could be a trap. But, I am certainly too cautious and jaded for my own good from time to time, and this may be one of them. Still I can’t shake that perception.
Wallstreet wants to put it's money funnel into Bitcoin before the next bull run starts.. which is imminent if the previous halving cycles have any say in the matter. I believe that Treasury probably views the ETF's as a net positive because, as I have commented before, this will get more and more of the BTC securitized and into the DTCC fold... ready for the great taking, like everything else. My hope is that by the time this actually happens, I will have made a 10X on Bitcoin, paid off my mortgage, and invested enough of the proceeds in a local organic farm to have my name on a placard on their new tractor : )
Spot ETF's are likely days away. Best of luck to all.
I agree completely.
Maybe I’m a dumb boomer but I can easily recognize the value in real things, not BTC.
I’ve read and heard all kinds of arguments for it. They seem to make sense at the time, but after a while the buzz wears off and I’m left with the same feeling I had before: there’s nothing there.
BTC to me is a pyramid scheme. Everybody hopes the price goes up so that they can sell it to a lesser fool and get out of it.
It’s rare - so what. You can transfer large amounts of money out of the country - I’m never going to do that.
Seems like it wouldn’t take much for people to give up on BTC and the damn thing would drop to nothing. Or something better comes along and displaces it.
Not to mention the complexity of it. You have to jump through hoops to get it, store it, and use it, and you could still lose it. Or it could be stolen. Or the goobermint could f it all up with their own Ponzi scheme.
Real things for me, bitcoin for thee…
Nope, not a dimwit at all, something much more dangerous. From Urban Dictionary:
Described by Vox Day as "individuals of above average intelligence, yet not too far from average".
Generally found in the 105-120 IQ range. These are the people who are considered "gifted" in primary school and perhaps "honors" in high school. In the same vein, they either think of themselves as "smart but lazy" or perform well in school yet do poorly/mediocre on standardized testing. May attend a low-tier university or none at all. Almost always very online, with strong opinions that lack nuance.
Midwits are truly cursed to be neither blissfully dumb nor reap the benefit of being of superior intelligence or a genius. They can grasp general concepts, but are less capable of digging deeper, understanding nuance, or adapting quickly to complex problems, leading to an entire middle class of perpetually unhappy, often vaguely angry people.
Is Microsoft real? They are a $2.75 Trillion market cap. company that makes… software. BTC is money that emerged from incredibly elegant software… software that harnessed the network effect of growing adoption by users and miners. Amazingly, it’s completely decentralized. The market cap. of Bitcoin right now is $861B. I predict that by the end of next year, it’s market cap. will be larger than that of any company on earth.
What you are missing Andy is the fact that Bitcoin keeps going up in large part because debt-based fiat has so many terrible characteristics and is used abusively against us. Bitcoin is not a ponzi scheme any more than real estate, or any other asset class… it’s a monetary escape hatch. https://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/verve/bittersweetsymphony.html
'Cause it’s a bittersweet symphony, that’s life Tryna make ends meet You’re a slave to money then you die
I’ll take you down the only road I’ve ever been down
You know the one that takes you to the places
Where all the veins meet yeah
A little disappointed that there has been so little follow up on the The Great Taking. From what I’ve seen (not just here) the financial industry is so spooked by it that they just want to sweep it under carpet and continue down the how do I squeeze an extra half percent of return.
How does one handle the phases of the KaBoom… Or to follow John Denver’s advice, we just smiled and waved, sitting on that sack of seeds… What should be in that sack of seeds
https://www.cryptovantage.com/news/what-are-the-biggest-crypto-rug-pulls-in-history/
A successful BitCoin rugpull would no doubt be the biggest ever, and the last.
Before that, recruitment efforts and ponzi puffery must continue in all venues and spaces!
Meanwhile, it’s a great sinkhole for the wealth of troublesome libertarians/AnCaps, who might otherwise be spending it on building real communities of resistance.
Its as if maybe ol’ Satoshi took some of these outcomes into consideration.
Never let it be said that the Company lacks a sense of humor.
(that would be the Fan Belt Inspectors)
I’m sure you know this Spork… but the rug pull thing applies to literally every other shitcoin out there that has or had at one time a centralized developer. A transparent code and a 15 year track record of network hash growth and adoption speak the unique nature of Bitcoin.
Since we don’t know who or what Satoshi is or was, you are welcome to hold your chosen mythology. Do you think the “Company” will play with all the Sat’s in Satoshi’s wallets and cause mayhem? The estimated 1M coins in the long dormant wallets are the only angle I can think that possibly plays into a negative scenario for BTC, and even then it would only be short term as the supply would be sucked up eventually, just like the other 19M already mined.
Meanwhile you attempt to make Bitcoin seem morally repugnant;
it’s a great sinkhole for the wealth of troublesome libertarians/AnCaps, who might otherwise be spending it on building real communities of resistance.
I know some folks in El Salvador who might beg to differ in terms of how to monetize a community of resistance.
Giving each of our Southern invaders a $5000 debit card and sending them forth, out to selected parts of the country (like blue cities/states), I wonder if this is a significant economic “Stimi” in addition to all the other things mentioned - ie- related to “voters”, laborers, etc.??? If the economic situation needs a “stimulus” from grass roots spending, in the opinion of our “Oligarchs”, might they prefer the “immigrant” and resist giving the money to “citizens” who might vote for the other guy. Especially if there were parts of the country in trouble. Just thinking…
I’ve often described the problem as stupidity in people who ought to know better. Midwits is a really good description, as is useful idiots. The power of midwits appears to be particularly common in the radical left now. The right has their own versions.
I wonder if the recent resurgence comes from the degradation of the concept of merit that came with affirmative action. The ruling elites throughout history have always had lots of dimwits and sociopaths that used their non-earned power for destructive purposes. One of the trends in the enlightenment was to recognize merit in those NOT from privilege.
What is more dangerous than stupidity is lazy-minded privileged people who don’t understand why truly competent people run rings around them. It’s easy to pretend your lack of personal success is because of discrimination. Today, even “privileged” white males can make the claim - “quotas” had to be filled so a white male can no longer compete. And the overwhelming influence of wealth and power protecting their own does indeed make life miserable for all who weren’t born with a silver spoon. Power beats merit hands down. That’s why the oligarchs push the concept of special interest groups - wouldn’t want people to notice who’s actually behind the curtain.
A recent study talks about this phenomena in early Nazi Germany. “While Nazi politicians in the Reichstag were recruited from a variety of social classes, ranging from industrial workers to members of the aristocracy, National Socialist elites outside the parliament typically belonged to the Bildungsbürgertum and sociologically resembled the highly educated members of democratic and liberal parties. . . . social plurality of the Nazi movement and its ability to integrate elites of very different backgrounds. In this context, much emphasis must also be placed on the differences between the leaders in Nazi party organizations and those Nazi supporters who held important positions in the German civil service, the media or the university landscape. Contrary to the majority of Nazi officials and politicians, these figures were often well-integrated into the German Bildungsbürgertum. Accordingly, this paper shows that a surprising number of early Nazi elites in the Weimar Republic were highly educated members of the German bourgeoisie. Furthermore, the data collected from the NDB suggest that political elites in these spheres were radicalized earlier and to a larger extent than the general population.”
