Decoding Omicron

cmartenson · November 27, 2021, 8:21am

Part I of this exclusive report details what we know about the new SARS-CoV-2 'variant of concern'.

News of this new variant absolutely smashed across the world stage on Wednesday/Thursday of the US Thanksgiving holiday week.

The wall of coverage was intense and saturating. Every major print and news video outlet in every western nation covered this new variant in-depth and in urgent, if not overtly fearful tones. Even ‘weather.com’ managed to sneak out an “everything you need to know” article in just a few hours.

On Thursday (Thanksgiving) night stock futures began to tumble and on the shortened trading day of Friday (11/26/21) US equities were hammered for big losses. The US Dow lost over 1100 points when the brief (15 min) aftermarket futures session is included:

Oil was utterly smashed. Down more than 13% oil sent a huge, huge message:

These messages, in total, scream: “LOCKDOWNS COMING! ECONOMY AND TRAVEL TO BE CRUSHED!!”

Is this warranted? Did a scary new variant suddenly emerge that warrants this level of coverage, concern, handwringing and even outright panic?

No, not even close. More carefully, I should say, “no, there’s simply not enough information to ascertain at this point if this new variant is of greater, lesser, or no additional concern at all.”

In Part II I will let you know what I suspect is really at work here, and why, but since those are my speculations, opinions, and ‘best guesses’ they have to remain behind our member paywall for now. I wish I could still operate in the complete open, but I’ve learned that people like me who care about evidence and letting the data form our conclusions (rather than the other way around) are allowed zero errors. People holding the center mass view, who are often and routinely not just wrong, but spectacularly wrong, are never held to account and rarely even questioned about their horribly deficient and misleading track records.

The Details

This new variant, initially identified in samples taken in Botswana on November 11th and named “Nu” was quickly renamed “Omicron” by the W.H.O. By the end of the day on Friday, Nov. 26th, the W.H.O. had declared it a “variant of concern.” It was initially detected in 4 diplomats who had traveled to Botswana (from where I don’t know). It has since been detected in Hong Kong within a traveler in quarantine, and then within samples in Gauteng, South Africa.

It’s a weird beast with a lot of genetic changes and it absolutely deserves deeper inquiry into its exact mutations in order to gain an understanding of why it has freaked so many people out. But we have zero clinical or outcome data to suggest if it’s better, worse, or neutral as far as its health impacts.

As a reminder, a live virus particle consists of a string of nucleic (or genetic) material - the instructions - packaged inside a carefully constructed capsule made up of many different individual proteins stuck to the outside of, or sometimes protruding through, a lipid membrane capsule. In the case of SARS-CoV-2 there are ~30 different proteins encoded by the instructions.

It’s those viral proteins that are the focus here. Each protein is assembled out of a series of molecular building blocks, which are themselves called amino acids. There are 20 amino acids in all used by nature out of which the entire fascinating, magnificent universe of proteins are assembled.

One way to think of amino acids is like those necklace beads that pop together and then back apart again, but with each amino acid being a plastic bead of a different color and shape from all the rest. Kind of like these:

A ‘protein’ then is a specific necklace made up of a very specific pattern of colors and shapes. Because of that unique assembly, every protein has entirely different shapes and functions from all the others.

You’re read a lot about the spike protein – that is an ~1286 long amino acid chain. Because of its precise ‘string of beads’ it binds extremely well to human ACE2 receptors (and several others, unfortunately) but far less so to other species. Were the string of beads any different at all, it would either lose or gain some of its many functions that allow it to bind to and enter humans cells.

With that background, we can discuss “variants.” Each variant is a faithful copy of a virus that was rather unfaithfully copied. Mistakes were made during the reproduction of the genetic (or nucleic) instructions. Because of those instructional errors, the new genetic code does not code for the original virus particle with its very precise protein strings, but instead has one or more of those amino acid ‘beads’ replaced by another.

If the original colors of the necklace were:

red-blue-red-yellow-green-green-blue

Now they might be:

red-red-red-yellow-green-green-blue

Every variant has a unique ‘fingerprint’ at least one or usually many of these exchanged amino acids. The wonkish details include the way these things are talked about using scientific shorthand, which you’ve certainly encountered by now. Every amino acid used by the virus is numbered beginning with the first amino acid in the first protein and ending with he last one in the last protein. Further, each amino acid is represented by a single letter of the alphabet. So if we saw P681 that would mean there was the amino acid named Proline in the 681 position. If we saw P681R, that would be shorthand for a mutation that saw the P swapped our for an “R” or Arginine (A was already taken, so R it is!).

And that’s a mutation right there! One amino acid swapped out for another. One colored shaped bead in a chain swapped out for another. A red apple for a yellow banana. New shape, new color and a brand new function.

That specific mutation, P681R, was one of the more critical ones that made Delta what it was. That specific location was the P in the PRRA which was, infamously, the inserted furin cleavage site so fondly used by gain of function researchers in labs, but that’s another story for another day.

99.999% of the time mutational changes are so deleterious to the viral lifecycle that the affected virus cannot reproduce and the lineage dies on the spot. Boom! Gone. Done-in-one.

But very rarely, every so often, one of them magically makes the virus even more transmissive and then that lineage is off to the races. Because it reproduces faster, better, easier it also gains “market share” very rapidly from the existing strains and before you know it, it’s the dominant strain.

Like this:

In the graphic above we see the epsilon strain first losing ‘market share’ to the alpha strain which itself then lost market share to the delta strain. That happened because each successive strain was simply better at transmitting than the prior strain(s). That’s how nature works. This ‘selective pressure’ is simply a statement about how something that can reproduce faster and/or better evade defenses, will have an easier time of spreading within and between afflicted individuals.

What makes this variant so different and of such a concern? Simply put, the sheer number of mutations and (gasp!) even an inserted brand-new sequence coding for three brand new colored necklace beads (amino acids).

Which means it is taking over fast in terms of “market share” or prevalence:

That blue wedge at the end is nearly vertical. However, let’s remember that this is “sequenced genomes” and we cannot know how many that is as a proportion of the overall population, whether there was sampling bias or other dynamics such as measuring a large blip within a tiny shrinking pool.

After all, 80% of one hundred is just 80, while 80% of a million is 800,000. So always keep such ‘percentage charts’ at an emotional distance because they can be (and often are meant to be) emotionally misleading.

The first part of the above example is pretty much what I understand the situation to be. Here’s the state of what was known on November 25th:

That’s right, there were just 82 total known sequenced examples (cases?) of B.1.1.529 in the whole world at that point. How many deaths? None that I have yet heard of (here on Nov 26th at 8 pm EST). How many hospitalizations? Not one.

So, the tally so far:

• 82 total cases
• Zero hospitalizations
• Zero deaths
• One entire world freaking out

Now why the freakout?

Well, probably because the family tree for this variant makes zero evolutionary sense. At least to me. So far every subsequent mutation that has led to a new variant, or to a new family of variants (called a ‘clade’) has an easily tracked family history. Each new mutation is built upon the prior mutations.

If you plot these out with dots and line the resulting graph looks like a sideways shrub. Not with Omicron, or B.1.1.529. It sticks out like a whole different thing all on its own. I get concerned on a variety of levels when I see something so unusual, and I guess other people do too (but probably for very different reasons):

(Source)_ https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1464353245380243457/photo/1

The way I read this ‘family tree’ it’s like someone reached all the way back to April 2020, plucked out an existing variant (having only the D614G mutation in common with every other clade & variant) and then somehow, magically, all by itself, came up with not one, not two, not ‘a few,’ but twenty new mutations never before seen in any other variant of concern.

Here’s the complete list from @JeffreyBarett on Twitter:

(Source – Twitter) https://twitter.com/jcbarret/status/1463975708770897923

• Blue and three shades of purple = 19 never before seen amino acid substitutions.

• Red = 9 mutations seen or similar to those seen in other variants of concern. Of note is the P681H which, like the aRginine in P681R sees a basic amino acid hot-swapped into the furin cleavage site possibly (probably) rendering it even more super-charged. In this case the H is histidine, a basic amino acid.

• Green is the ubiquitous D614G which must have been so awesome that every strain/clade/variant saw fit to keep that one in the pool.

• Yellow = 3 brand spanking new, never seen before, changes that could possibly be a problem due to their locations.

Yikes! It’s going to take a while to figure out what that all means

What we don’t know

What bothers me is how much fear and reaction has already gone into this new variant given that we don’t yet have any data at all to suggest that it will have a more dire health consequence. It might, and it’s possible that it might evade current vaccines and even natural immunity, but then again it might not.

That has not stopped the hyperbolic expression of science-free and incautious statements such as these:

Yes, it might be poorly recognized by neutralizing antibodies. Or that might not be an issue. Or it might be that the variant doesn’t cause much harm beyond being transmissive. We simply don’t know yet.

The hyperbole has been off the charts. The science and data-free assertions by a wall of so-called experts about how terrible this variant is going to be has left me practically stunned. And those of you who know me understand that I have a very high degree of tolerance for absorbing hyperbolic BS and not being affected by it.

Conclusion

So far it’s been much ado and hopefully about nothing. We simply don’t yet know enough of anything to state one way or the other if this new weirdly mutated variant will be of greater, lesser, or neutral concern.

We can say that the fear pipes have been blasted on full and well out of proportion to what is actually known so far.

We don’t know how or if those already vaccinated will fare. Better? Worse? We don’t know how the unvaccinated will fare. Better? Worse?

We don’t know how the existing early treatments will perform. Better? Worse?

We don’t know if B…1.1.529 is stable or if it will now spawn an entire new bevy of downstream relations (however, it’s very likely) each with their own attributes, good and bad.

I will be tracking this very closely and doing what I do; informing and educating you as I perform in my role as information scout.

In closing, my own entrant in the naming sweepstakes failed:

I do have my concerns about the reactions and responses and these I will save for Part II for our subscribers. As has been the theme all along in this debacle, things are not as they appear…

Continue to Part II here.

This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://peakprosperity.com/decoding-omicron/

chemsui · November 27, 2021, 4:26am

https://drsambailey.com/2021/11/11/the-covid-19-fraud-war-on-humanity/
This doctor says that there hasn’t been as actual isolated virus for the pathogen and the ways the virology community confirm it’s existence is straight up false when you break it down. Would love if Chris commented on it or someone who is into virology cause it challenges the way they confirm their trade and most likely their very belief systems. Like so much of covid is straight up bs, that this makes sense how it’s laid out.

txalchemist · November 27, 2021, 4:33am

I’m still waiting until we get to variant Xi!

dreinmund · November 27, 2021, 4:54am

So, what then, exactly, makes people sick and die ? Don’t tell me it’s just mass psychosis.

gregory · November 27, 2021, 5:43am

what then, exactly, makes people sick and die ?

lack of appropriate treatment for other real illnesses/diseases. delay of appropriate treatment. incorrect and damaging treatment for the real illnesses/diseases. psychological affects on the human body by the new government and society imposed environments and 'protective' protocols, including pressure, depression and loneliness (and not being able to attend church). physical affects on the human body by new technologies (eg 5G). shedding of S spikes from vaccinated people. also trojan-horse seasonal flu shots actually planting various man-made viruses into the patient. the shots have the additional advantage of being able to repress the patient's immune system, allowing other normally sedated illnesses/diseases to wake up and grow. you can't believe anything the hospitals and doctors tell you, so all of these could cause illness with the hospitals/doctors then telling you that you have covid.

emdashtheory · November 27, 2021, 7:41am

you can't believe anything the hospitals and doctors tell you, so all of these could cause illness with the hospitals/doctors then telling you that you have covid.

Mass psychosis has gone far, but it hasn't gone that far. Other coronaviruses exist. This one exists too. We have the genome and we have scientists studying the virus as well as the disease. We are reasonably sure it was created in a lab, and have data to back that up. I'm open to listening to any hypothesis because I think it's necessary, but it requires science. Since many of us aren't scientifically or data inclined, it also takes more diligent studying and skepticism, as well as some healthy self reflection when observing. Truth deducing requires getting a good footing on each conclusion before moving forward to the next. Even thousands of years ago people knew that the earth wasn't flat, and they did that by measuring shadows in different geographical locations. There are a lot more data points being parsed through here, too many, but to reach a conclusion that Covid doesn't exist would be to negate them altogether in exchange for a grandiose "one size fits all" hypothesis built on social momentum without credibility. Could 5G be making people sick? Maybe. Could Covid shots be contaminated with graphene oxide? It's possible. I really wouldn't know. The difference I see in what eventually is proven true is that a consensus is developed from many minds individually, with similar repeatable findings. I haven't seen one such consensus around the "covid doesn't exist" theory, among many others.

richcabot · November 27, 2021, 8:21am

With that many unique changes in its sequence it is likely a lab creation. I’ll bet it was specifically engineered to be less treatable by repurposed drugs like IVM and HCQ.

nordicjack · November 27, 2021, 8:58am

They lost the fire. It was clear, no matter where you looked the surges and waves were calming and calming. Delta gave a good show, but ultimately began to fizzle. They simply rekindled. ( they didn’t get enough uptake of the vaccine - at the right time withing the right time-frame – They blew it )

chemsui · November 27, 2021, 9:05am

Is it possible that using the pcr test is getting pieces of other pathogens and diagnosing a positive hit as covid? Sure looks that way. Being able to create case numbers and change policy towards the control level desired is very convenient for tptb. The pcr test as a way to find"this virus"never made sense to me and it’s use for the first time in history just like all the other novel stuff about this only makes sense when you come to other conclusions first.
RE; 1st thread comment. Not truly understanding the depth of virology gone into in the 1st comment video as someone without background can get from it. I wish to know if it is possible from another educated opinion (and her thesis falls outside my Overton window of acceptability at this time). It is hard to accept as a possibility, but during this data driven journey over the past two years or so; many parts of the world that I thought I knew too be true have undeniably been incorrect. That being said it is in the realm of possibility and the incentives are many. The mode and model and the means are do-able no matter if it’s not something I could admit to having had fallen for, it’s hard to imagine that it could be that way. But however unlikely it is- if it’s possible-it could be what this is. Other papers from scientific sources are dubious at best with their findings and that’s why I was wondering if some one more accomplished in the field could come in and say if what the Dr. is wrong/ right on and say how/ why. So far it’s only mine/ others speculation in response to the claims she makes.

nigel · November 27, 2021, 11:40am

The drug companies have made a lot of money from coronavirus. This may well be their most effective business model, to manufacture vaccines based on a public health crisis.
Now that they understand how much money they make, what would prevent them from finding a biologist who can edit genes to manufacture a variant so that they can make even more money?
Given that you can buy a home genetic editing kit from the internet for under $300 that will be sophisticated enough to splice jellyfish DNA into yeast DNA, all you need to find is someone who is psychopathic enough to collect a large paycheck to do it
I mean this just looks like more gain of function research.

neil4truth · November 27, 2021, 1:07pm

Just a crazy question! Molnupiravir is supposed to work by mutating the genetic info of the virus during replication to make it unviable? Could it be that Molnupiravir is a terrifying virus mutation generator? If it’s possible that’s the cause of the large number of mutations at once, what could the drug do to other viruses too?
Hopefully my poor understanding is just badly wrong!

laurie-o · November 27, 2021, 1:09pm

Fitting name for this latest variant. Thank you, Information Scout. Might there be variations of no concern going undetected, mutations never identified that lead to those that get discovered?

dreinmund · November 27, 2021, 1:21pm

Occam’s razor says there is a virus.
Mass psychosis is real, and can lead to the effects, but it can’t be turned on over night like a switch. TPTB are definitely using this crisis to build on it. But I don’t see it possible that the crisis is 100% manufactured. Too many people got sick and died that are both vaxx and Covid deniers.

gregory · November 27, 2021, 1:25pm

other coronaviruses exist.

yes.

we have the genome

yes and no. it's a theoretical genome designed to scare people. it might be in the vaccines. it's not in nature. as other people have stated, the physical virus has not been isolated. if it hasn't be isolated, how do you 'sequence' it? if it hasn't been isolated, does it exist?

we have scientists studying the virus

which scientists? who are they working for? are they studying the virus or the sequence? people are assuming that the virus is real. that's part of the fear. prove that the virus is real (and physical) otherwise stop being scared. btw, the elites would never allow a real virus to be released into the world. there would be no way to guarantee their personal safety.

the-blame-e · November 27, 2021, 1:40pm

“Science” (if science even exists anymore), says COVID was created in a lab. You cannot mix HIV DNA cells in with a miRNA virus except in a lab. The only kind of lab capable of this kind of work is a BSL-4 Lab.
There is only one (1) BSL-4 Lab in Canada (in Winnipeg). Chinese scientists were arrested smuggling genetic material to China.
There is only one (1) BSL-4 Lab in Wuhan, China (that we know of). And a “Bat Lady” is in charge of that.
There are fifteen (15) BSL-4 Lab(s) in the United States, and Dr. Fauci (Mr. Science himself), has had his evil hands in all of them.
Gee. 15 to 1. We created death on our own front doorstep. It got loose. It turned on us. End of story.
“Gain of Function” is an Act of War.
So why haven’t the nukes started falling? Because we’d be bombing ourselves.
News Flash: We’ve already nuked ourselves.

the-blame-e · November 27, 2021, 1:53pm

“. . . [T]he elites would never allow a real virus to be released into the world. there would be no way to guarantee their personal safety.”
And, perhaps, the elites (the hoi pollio), made sure to create and then take “the cure” before they released this WMD into the world.

the-blame-e · November 27, 2021, 1:55pm

The body cannot survive without the mind. You can kill a people with fear and propaganda and lies. The body cannot survive without the mind.

cmartenson · November 27, 2021, 2:07pm

Might there be variations of no concern going undetected, mutations never identified that lead to those that get discovered?

Yes. Absolutely. They happen all the time. Look, this new variant may well be the dreaded escape variant that Geert warned us all about all those months ago. It may come from a lab. It may be worse from a health perspective, or it may not. I am wide open to all that we will learn from and about this variant and its wide spectrum of mutations. It also remains true that the reporting and coverage of this has been over-the-top fear porn and very much out of balance with the actual facts on the ground. How did this "reporter" come to these very declarative conclusions within hours of the press release/announcement of the dreaded new variant? In my experience, such well-arranged talking points are distributed by someone in advance to the stenographers who work at these various propaganda outlets. Here's one early take, from the 26th, with all the talking points neatly laid out, in The Australian:

richcabot · November 27, 2021, 2:22pm

RFK Jr’s book exposes the massive corruption of vaccine and drug, research and development. Virtually all controlled by Fauci and Gates. Almost no one will buck the system because it is literally career ending to do so.
Chris said he had read parts of it. I suspect he may not have finished it because the book explains lots of things that are currently happening.
Get the book and read it all. It’s pretty amazing. It’s also heavily referenced, thousands of them.
Warning, it will destroy illusions about much more than just vaccines.

lesphelps · November 27, 2021, 2:58pm

Every health care professional in my family, totaling 7, and every pro I talk to, says, first, it’s real and second 90% of the people in the hospital, or with serious Covid issues are unvaccinated. Four of my family pros have caught mild covid, with three losing their sense of taste (psychosis), not counting other family members, who have become mildly Covid psychotic.
You might as well give it up. This website is now dominated by people who are not open minded on the subject of Covid, or Covid vaccines.